AL MVP: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Probably the closest race of all will be argumentative either way. If Cabrera wins, Trout fans will be angry. If Trout wins, Cabrera fans will be angry. As for my opinion, I feel Trout should win the award. There are a few classic arguments that get presented when deciding who the MVP should be, with classic being the operative word. Among these arguments are batting average, RBI, whether their team advanced to the playoffs, and how they played down the stretch. Since the inception of each baseball fan’s conscious as to what makes a great baseball player, well, great, we’ve been taught that’s someone who hits for a high batting average, mashes a lot of home runs, and drives home droves of runs. To that end, yes, Miguel Cabrera should win the MVP in the most hands-down sort of fashion conceivable. But along with father time, naturally, baseball has evolved. The players have evolved, the in-game strategies have evolved, even the way we statistically break the game down, and consume the information, has evolved. In many ways, I can see the Trout-Cabrera MVP discussion being the watershed moment in the transition from the traditional stats we’ve all known and fallen in love with into the next wave of modern information. And although it’s almost become a dirty word at this point among many mainstream media personnel, Sabermetrics is that new, modern tool. To me, Mike Trout is the MVP, and it’s not even a particularly close race. He played in 20 fewer games than everyone in the American League, and still posted an historical Wins Above Replacement figure, which, according to Fangraphs (fWAR), finished at a robust 10.0. Miguel Cabrera generated 7.1 fWAR, 3rd in the American League behind the aforementioned Trout, and Robinson Cano (7.8 fWAR).It’s not that I don’t consider the Triple Crown to be an impressive feat to accomplish; I do. After all, it hasn’t happened in 45 years, and it plays a lurid role behind the romanticism of baseball, and why fans who love baseball, really love baseball. But within this new-wave of statistics in the baseball lexicon, we’ve come to realize that batting average isn’t nearly as important as on-base percentage, and that RBI is a stat predicated on who’s on base in front of you, rather than what a player generates in one single at bat. For instance, Miguel Cabrera was the cleanup hitter in Detroit, making it elementary that he’d have more runs batted in than Mike Trout, a leadoff hitter. Now let’s get into some stats.
Offense
The surface numbers are what make this race nearly impossible for Mike Trout to win. Miguel Cabrera finished up with the most home runs in the AL (44), the most RBI (139) and the highest batting average (.330). Mike Trout, even if he had played the same allotted amount of games as Cabrera, wouldn’t have eclipsed him in home runs or RBI, as he finished with 30 and 83 in those two categories, respectively. So, yeah, if you need any explanation in Cabrera’s MVP legitimacy, look no further than this paragraph. However, if we’re looking at Sabermetrics, then offensively — Cabrera’s lone contribution on a baseball diamond — they show that he wasn’t any better than Trout.
In terms of wRC+, which is defined as “[an attempt] to quantify a player’s total offensive value and measure it by runs,” Mike Trout finished at 166 (where 100 is league average); Cabrera also finished at 166. In terms of wOBA, defined “to measure a hitter’s overall offensive value, based on the relative values of each distinct offensive event,” Trout finished at .409; Cabrera at .417.
They were precisely even in wRC+, and Cabrera was a whole eight one-thousandths of a point better than Trout in the wOBA department — virtually identical. By way of my batting order argument, this information leads one to believe that had Trout been batting in the 4-hole in Anaheim’s lineup over the course of the season, and had he played in as many games as Cabrera, he would have generated as many runs. That’s why RBI is an outdated statistic; it’s measured by opportunity, not skill.
Defense
According to Fangraphs, the DRS (Defensive Runs Saved) measurement is quantified by using UZR (Ultimate Zone Range). It’s used, as you yourself can probably deduce, to determine how many runs away from zero a player saved his team, or cost them. In the Trout vs. Cabrera discussion, this is the singularly-most glaring difference between the two players. It’s said that the four priority positions on the diamond from a defensive standpoint are all up the middle, which is why you generally see teams trying to build around catching, shortstop, second base and center field. Trout occupies the latter. In 2012, Trout’s UZR was 11.4, meaning he saved his team 11+ runs roaming center field. This figure was 3rd in baseball, behind Michael Bourn‘s incredible 22.4, and Ben Revere‘s 16.4. Cabrera, on the other hand, playing 3rd base, posted a UZR of -10.0, meaning he actually cost his team ten runs over the course of the season. That figure was 2nd-worst among all Major League 3rd basemen. Between the two, the difference away from zero [(11.4 - (-10.0)] says Mike Trout was defensively a little over 21 runs better than Miguel Cabrera in 2012.
Conclusion:Yes, I realize a Triple Crown is something special. Very special in fact. But look at the advanced statistics. Mike Trout had an unbelievable season. His season would be empty without a MVP award.
NL MVP: Yadier Molina, St. Louis Cardinals
Every one of you just said to yourself: "What about Buster Posey?" What Buster Posey did, coming back from that leg injury, was truly remarkable. However, Molina is the MVP. "Yadi" as Cardinal Nation refers to their franchise player has steadily improved each of his nine major league seasons. When he emerged from the minor leagues, everyone knew the defensive capabilities were there. Molina was projected as a perennial Gold Glove winner but has now evolved into a perennial all-star. While Posey had a great season, Yadier Molina had the bigger overall impact on his team. When Albert Pujols made the decision to move to the West Coast on December 8th, the Cardinal franchise was changed. A leader was gone. A superstar was gone. Molina filled the leadership void left by Pujols' exit and helped rookie manager Mike Matheny guide the Cardinals into the postseason. St. Louis was a team who relied heavily on veteran players with lengthy medical records. Given the loss of Pujols and future Hall of Famers Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan, this could have been a difficult transition season. Molina single handily made sure it wasn't. Molina was remarkable for just how many things he did well. He hit for average, a career-high .315; he hit for power, the 22 home runs are as many as he slugged between 2004 and 2007; he played his usual peerless defense, throwing out 48% of base-stealers. He even ran the bases well, taking 12 of his own on 15 chances. Posey played 29 games at first base. Molina played 0 at first base. Having that consistent backstop helped an army of promising young hurlers evolve into future stars.AL Cy Young: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
David Price was the best pitcher on the best rotation in the American League. The southpaw dominated. Especially against tough competition. Price was 10-2, 2.51 ERA in 16 starts against AL East teams, representing four of the league's top eight offensive teams by on-base plus slugging percentage, or OPS. He was 13-3, 2.27 ERA in 19 games (and 62 percent of his innings) against teams that finished .500 or better. Price faced hitters with the highest aggregate OPS, as compiled by Baseball Prospectus, of the finalists, .763 (fifth among AL starters). Price had the second-highest WAR number of all AL pitchers, with 6.4. Now let's look at how Price's 2012 numbers have stacked up against previous AL Cy
Young winners: Of the past 10 winners, Price's ERA is lower than six pitchers. Only five won
more games, and only six bested him in strikeouts (205). If Price doesn't win this award, something is wrong with the BBWAA.
NL Cy Young and Breakout Pitcher: RA Dickey, New York Mets
Don't you just love a feel good story like RA Dickey? After the release of his tell-all book in the offseason, Dickey posted incredible numbers en route to one of the best seasons ever by a knuckleballer. Dickey recorded a league-best 230 strikeouts in 233 2/3 innings, while walking
just 54. That strikeout ability
combined with the low number of walks put Dickey in a unique class of
controlling the game's most unpredictable pitch, "The Knuckler." Dickey should win because of what he did and how he pitches. He was on a team that wasn’t very good. Sorry, Mets fans. Yet, Dickey still went out and dominated the competition that he faced. He had 20 wins, which is behind only Gio Gonzalez who was also a finalist. He also threw five complete games. Let’s also not forget about the fact that Dickey had to overcome adversity to be at this level. Dickey wasn’t ever supposed to pitch again. He decided to start throwing the knuckleball, a lost pitch in modern MLB. Dickey has two different types of knuckleballers: one that is thrown around the low 70s and one that is thrown in the upper 70s. The faster one even topped out at 81 mph. Dickey put up a truly remarkable season and is fully deserving of taking home the prize for best pitcher in the senior circuit.
AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Trout had arguably the best rookie season in major league history, and remember,
he didn’t play his first game of 2012 until April 28. Before you continue reading, remember that I love the WAR statistic. Trout led the majors with 10.7 WAR. That is
the second-highest WAR for a player in his age 20 or younger season, surpassed only by Dwight Gooden’s 11.9 WAR for his age 20 for the 1985 New York Mets. It was tied for the 13th-best WAR for
any AL player since 1900, and was the third-highest WAR by any player
in the last 20 seasons, beaten only by a pair of seasons by Barry Bonds (11.6 WAR in both 2001 and
2002). Trout was the fifth
player in major-league history to have a season in which he hit at least .300,
with 30 home runs, 40 steals, and 120 runs scored.
NL Rookie of the Year: Wade Miley, Arizona Diamonbacks
From Tyler Kepner:
Ken Griffey Jr. was 19 as a rookie for Seattle in 1989. He hit .264 with 16 homers and 61 runs batted in, a strong showing for his age that foreshadowed greatness. But Gregg Olson, Baltimore’s closer, had a better season and was rookie of the year.
Wade Miley of Arizona is this year’s Olson. The left-handed Miley has been a steady presence all year long in Arizona’s rotation, going 16-10 with a 3.25 earned run average. He should win the National League award over Bryce Harper, Washington’s 19-year-old sensation.
AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter, Baltimore Orioles
The last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs, I was two years old. The division the Orioles play in is arguably the toughest in all of baseball. Four of the league's top eight offensive teams by OPS came from the AL East. Yet, the Orioles were able to make the playoffs and contend against baseball's stiffest competition. They were able to do this through the decisions of their manager and the uncanny moves he would make. With a rotation that consisted of no proven pitchers, Showalter was able to win games through the use of his bullpen. Jim Johnson was lights out. Once the O's had a lead, they rarely relinquished it. Extra Inning games were practically automatic wins. It takes a great manager to motivate his team to be more than what their talent says they are. And that's what Buck Showalter did. He convinced his team that they could compete with the best teams in baseball. And they did just that.
NL Manager of the Year: Davey Johnson, Washington Nationals
Many people threw the Nationals' postseason chances out the window even before a single game was played. "They don't have the experience." "They are too young." Davey Johnson led this "inexperienced, youthful" team to the best record in baseball and a spot in the playoffs where they were eventually eliminated by the St. Louis Cardinals in a heartbreaking Game 5 for the Nationals Faithful. A franchise that hadn't experienced postseason play since the 1930s was able to get a feel of just how special it really is. I was at Game 3 of the NLDS and the atmosphere was truly remarkable. Well, at least for the first few innings. The Cardinals changed that climate but that is beside the point. Under Johnson's leadership, the Nationals achieved what few thought they would. He trusted his veterans. He trusted his up and coming stars. His leadership was felt in that clubhouse and the results showed.
That wraps up the traditional awards. Now for several other categories where there is no BBWAA voting.
Closer of the Year: Fernando Rodney, Tampa Bay Rays
Fernando Rodney 2012: 2 Wins, 0.60 ERA (Let that grasp your mind), 48 Saves, 0.78 WHIP, 76 K.
Having that lockdown closer is especially important in today's game. The job of a closer is to record saves and not give up runs – in that order. Rodney had a 0.60 ERA in 74.2 innings pitched and he’s converted 48 of 50 saves. Rodney had been extremely erratic his whole career, posting an ERA in the 4.00s for each of his last five seasons. What happened this year is nearly unprecedented, as he went from walking more batters than he struck out in 2011 to striking out 4.5 times as many as he has walked this year. Truly an incredible season. Just look at that stat line again. Wow.Comeback Player of the Year: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants
Some will say; "Well shouldn't he win the MVP too?" That honor goes to Yadier Molina in my opinion. But what Posey did this season was truly remarkable. After playing only 45 games in 2011 due to a leg injury suffered during a home plate collision with Florida Marlin, Scott Cousins, Posey picked up right where he left off in 2010. In his rookie season, Posey was named Rookie of the Year and led his team to its first World Series Championship since 1954. Posey was the superstar on the 2012 champion Giants team. When the offense was slumping, Posey picked his teammates up and was able to lead a pitching staff that ranked among the best in baseball. Oh yeah, he also had the highest batting average in all of baseball. Hats off and congrats to you, Mr. Posey on a great year and a great comeback.
Executive of the Year: Billy Beane, Oakland A's
The 2011-2012 offseason strategy of the Oakland A's: rebuild the team for a hopeful move to San Jose. That strategy led to the trades of Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Andrew Bailey. All all-stars at one time in their respective careers. All still young and in their prime/not quite in their prime. This looked like as good a rebuilding case if I've ever seen one. What it turned into however, was an American League West championship. How? Well, that is something lots of people are trying to figure out. This team had no business competing with the likes of the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels. Beane's crafty in season trades and waiver signings helped lead this team to what it accomplished. Moneyball 2.0. Breakout Hitter of the Year: Allen Craig, St. Louis Cardinals
From Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:
First baseman Pujols exited via free agency. Veteran Lance Berkman broke down. Replacement slugger Beltan labored through the dog days of summer and new No. 3 hitter Matt Holliday struggled down the stretch with nagging back problems. Amid all that, Allen Craig emerged as an outstanding clean-up hitter while playing first base and the corner outfield spots. In 469 at bats, he stroked 35 doubles, hit 22 homers and drove in 92 runs. While many young veterans prospered during Matheny's initial managerial campaign, Craig's breakthrough was most critical. He became the impact hitter this lineup desperately needed post-Pujols. His 2012 numbers projected over 550 at bats would have been MVP-worthy.Postseason MVP: Marco Scutaro, San Francisco Giants
I am a St. Louis Cardinals fan. I witnessed first-hand what Marco Scutaro did to lead the Giants to their second World Series championship in three years. Story Time: April 15, 2007. Oakland A's vs. New York Yankees. Marco Scutaro, the A's light hitting shortstop steps in against the best closer of all-time, Mariano Rivera. The Yankees led 4-2 with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th inning. Scutaro hit a 0-2 cutter off the left field foul pole sending the Oakland Colliseum into pure bedlam. Scutaro, who was hitting .050 at the time, had just hit a three run home run against Mariano Rivera. Easily one of the best experiences of my life. Back to 2012, that pesky Marco Scutaro propelled his team in October, rather than April, to a championship by hitting nearly .500 in the NLCS and delivering the go-ahead hit in Game 4 of the World Series. A great postseason by a great player and a great man.
Postseason Moment: St. Louis Cardinals, Game 5 NLDS
You seriously can't make this stuff up. 2011 World Series Game 6. David Freese erases elimination in the 9th inning with a 2 RBI triple. Then in the 10th, Lance Berkman tied the game with a RBI single scoring Jon Jay. Both occured when the Cardinals were down to their last strike. Now let's fast forward to September 12, 2012. The Cardinals are down 6-0 after three innings at Nationals Stadium in a win or take all Game 5. The Cardinals claw back to 6-5 but hopes are soon crushed after the Nationals tally on a run in the bottom of the 8th. So how do the Cardinals respond? The best way they know how. Don't give up. Don't ever give up. The Cardinals are down to their last strike five times this time around and do not fail to make it exciting. Daniel Descalso ties the game with a 2 RBI single on the first pitch he sees from hard-throwing Nationals closer, Drew Storen. Nationals fans are stunned. Shell-shocked. Embarrassed. There is really no word to describe what the feeling was like in that stadium. Then former first round pick Pete Kozma gives the Cardinals a two run lead driving in David Freese and Descalso. Jason Motte closes the door and the Cardinals advance. Just like that. In a matter of fifteen minutes, the Nationals went from booking a flight to San Francisco to dreaming of what could have been. Just call them the Comeback Cardinals.
Play of the Year: Mike Trout, June 27
Just watch this and there will be no arguments: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=22644539&c_id=mlb&topic_id=vtp_must_c
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