Sunday, July 29, 2012

MLB Hitters with Two Strikes

When a batter gets down to his last strike, he's usually toast. Hitters have a .178 average, a .244 on-base percentage and a .273 slugging percentage in two-strike counts this season. Those are the kind of numbers Brendan Ryan puts up. But a select few have managed to inflict pain on pitchers even with their backs against the wall. Who are baseball's best two-strike sluggers?
Here are the hitters with the highest slugging percentage in two-strike counts this season:

BatterTwo-Strike Slugging Pct.
Andrew McCutchen.573
David Ortiz.539
Ryan Braun.511
Prince Fielder.500
Jed Lowrie.469
Edwin Encarnacion.460
Adam Jones.458
David Wright.449
Alex Rios.437
Mark Teixeira.435
McCutchen has hit a Major League best 14 home runs in two-strike counts. Here's a hint to opposing pitchers: Don't try to challenge Cutch's quick wrists with a two-strike pitch inside.
McCutchen's two-strike slugging percentage by location

Average two-strike slugging percentage by location

Ortiz, meanwhile, is mauling most two-strike offerings thrown below the letters:
Ortiz's two-strike slugging percentage by location

Braun, like McCutchen, has been an inside slugger when he doesn't have a strike to spare:
Braun's two-strike slugging percentage by location

Braun's no one-year wonder, either: He has consistently drilled two-strike pitches. Braun has the highest two-strike slugging percentage in the majors since 2008. Papi also makes an appearance in the top ten:

<>
<>
Batter
Two-Strike Slugging Pct.
Ryan Braun
.428
Albert Pujols
.422
Troy Tulowitzki
.420
David Ortiz
.402
Prince Fielder
.401
Robinson Cano
.401
Jason Kipnis
.398
Allen Craig
.389
Fernando Tatis
.388
Aramis Ramirez
.384

Monday, July 9, 2012

Midseason Awards

The All-Star break of another mesmerizing baseball season is upon us. It's time again for the Midseason Awards Extravaganza.

AL MVP: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Mike Trout - Seattle Mariners v Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Yes he was called up a month into the season. Yes he is still a rookie. Yes his last name is the name of a fish. None of this matters. Mike Trout has had more impact on his team than any other player in the American League this year. Trout's 4.7 WAR ranks tops in the American League. When he walked into the Angels' clubhouse April 28, they were 6-14, nine games behind Texas and tied for the second-worst record in baseball. Since that day, they own the best record in baseball (40-23), and if the postseason started tonight, they'd be a playoff team. Trouts WPA/LI ranks tops in the American League attesting to his value for the Angels. A link to what WPA/LI is: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/wpa-li/. If the season ends today, Trout would be the AL Batting Champion and lead the league in SB with 26 while only being caught 3 times. Trout has shown fans across the nation why he was such a highly touted prospect that plans on being a superstar for years to come.
Also in the Hunt: Josh Hamilton, Robinson Cano, Adam Jones, Jose Bautista

NL MVP: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates

Many will say Joey Votto. Does my anti-Red mindset have something to do with it? Possibly but no. Andrew McCutchen is having a MVP caliber season. McCutchen is having a great year in what is a critical year for the Pirate Franchise. The Pirates have had 19 consecutive sub-.500 years and are 11 games over headed into the break. A lot of that is due to the year McCutchen is having. McCutchen leads all of baseball with a .359 Batting Average and is third in the NL with a WAR of 4.2. McCutchen is on pace for a triple slash line of .356/.410/.603. Since 1900 only two players have ever had a season in which they hit .345 or better, with 200 hits, 25 steals, 25 homers, a .400 OBP and a 1.000 OPS: Larry Walker in 1997 (in Denver) and Willie Mays in 1958. Andrew McCutchen is having a great year.  

Also in the Hunt: Joey Votto, David Wright, Ryan Braun, Yadier Molina

AL CY Young: Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
Chris Sale always had a promising young arm but this year he has become an unstoppable southpaw. At the beginning of the season it was unsure whether Sale would be starting or coming out of the bullpen but new manager Robin Ventura and GM Ken Williams made the right call in moving him to the rotation. Sale hasn't disappointed going 10-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 98 strikeouts to go with a 0.95 WHIP. That's a very good first half from a young arm on a first place team.

Also in the Hunt: Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Jake Peavy, David Price

NL CY Young: R.A. Dickey, New York Mets

No knuckleballer has ever won the Cy Young Award and Dickey may be the first if he keeps up his current numbers. Dickey is 12-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 123 strikeouts. Dickey's back to back 1-Hit Shutouts were two of the best pitched games this year as hitters had no chance against the knuckler. Dickey's xFIP- ranks top in the league and has been dominant in practically every start. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/era-fip-xfip/ Not only has this been a great year for Dickey on the bump, but he also had a best-selling book hit the press this winter. The book was a hit with baseball lovers and non-baseball lovers alike.

Also in the Hunt: Gio Gonzalez, James McDonald, Zack Greinke, Matt Cain


AL Rookie of the Year: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

If you're the MVP as a rookie, you will take home the Rookie of the Year. See above.

Also in the Hunt: Yu Darvish, Will Middlebrooks, Jarrod Parker

NL Rookie of the Year: Wade Miley, Arizona Diamondbacks

Miley is 9-5 with a 3.04 ERA and leads all National League rookies in WAR at 2.0. Miley's 1.09 WHIP leads all rookies and shows his ability to not allow a lot of baserunners. Despite playing for a sub-.500 team, Miley is putting up a great year.            

Also in the Hunt: Bryce Harper, Wilson Rosario, Zack Cozart

AL Manager of the Year: Buck Showalter, Baltimore Orioles

Showalter has transformed the attitude about baseball in the city of Baltimore since taking the reign in 2010. With the Orioles pitching rotation the way it is, Baltimore has no business being in the playoff hunt but because of Showalter's tactics they are.

Also in the Hunt: Robin Ventura, Mike Scoscia, Manny Acta, Joe Maddon

NL Manager of the Year: Clint Hurdle, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates averaged 2.9 Runs per Game in April and May but yet go into the break not only 11 games above .500 but also in first place in the National League Central. The Cardinals and Reds have more talent than the Pirates but Hurdle's managing of the team has allowed them to play great baseball the past month.

Also in the Hunt: Davey Johnson, Dusty Baker, Terry Collins, Bruce Bochy

AL Least Valuable Player: Jonathan Sanchez, Kansas City Royals

This past offseason, the Royals traded Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez. Sanchez has gone1-4 with a 6.80 ERA and more walks(40) than strikeouts(32). Meanwhile, Cabrera is the starting centerfielder for the National League All Star team.

NL Least Valuable Player: Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants/Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers

Lincecum is 3-9 with a 6.08 ERA. Not exactly what the Giants were expecting going into the season. Lincecum is a 2-Time Cy Young Award Winner but a Cy Young Winner doesn't put up those numbers. I'm expecting a better second half from "The Freak." Meanwhile, Rickie Weeks is hitting .193 and has struck out 100 times and has gotten 59 hits. That isn't good. Weeks participated in the Home Run Derby last year. Not exactly the numbers you'd expect from an All Star second baseman just the year before

Most Impressive Prospect: Wil Meyers, Kansas City Royals/Billy Hamilton, Cincinnatti Reds

Wil Meyers is having an amazing year in the Royals Farm System. He is hitting .333 on the year with 27 Home Runs and 72 RBI. Look for the Royals to try and trade Jeff Franceour to open up a spot for Meyers. In 82 games this season, Hamilton has swiped 104 bases. 104 stolen bases. Let your mind ponder 104 steals in 82 games. He's also hitting .323.
                                     






Tuesday, July 3, 2012

All Stars According to WAR

Each year I take a look at who actually deserves to be an All Star based on the stat that in my opinion captures a player's worth to his own franchise. The voted in starters will be put in parentheses next to the player's name that deserves to be playing. We shall look at who should be playing in Kansas City next week.

American League
Starters
C: Joe Mauer 2.6 WAR (Mike Napoli 1.1)
1B: Edwin Encarnacion 2.5 WAR (Prince Fielder 1.4)
2B: Robinson Cano 4.1 WAR (Cano)
3B: Miguel Cabrera 2.9 WAR (Adrian Beltre 2.7)
SS: Elvis Andrus 2.9 WAR (Derek Jeter 1.0)
OF: Mike Trout 4.3 WAR (Curtis Granderson 1.4)
OF: Josh Hamilton 3.6 WAR (Hamilton)
OF: Austin Jackson 3.5 WAR (Jose Bautista 3.1)
DH: David Ortiz 2.3 WAR (Ortiz)

Reserves
C: A.J. Pierzynski 2.2 WAR
C: Matt Wieters 2.0 WAR
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera 2.2 WAR
SS: Mike Aviles 2.0 WAR
3B: Mike Moustakas 2.8 WAR
3B: Brett Lawrie 2.8 WAR
2B: Jason Kipnis 2.4 WAR
1B: Paul Konerko 2.2 WAR
OF: Adam Jones 3.3 WAR
OF: Josh Reddick 3.2 WAR
OF: Alex Gordon 3.1 WAR
DH: Adam Dunn 1.4 WAR

SP: Justin Verlander 3.6 WAR
SP: Chris Sale 3.2 WAR
SP: Jake Peavy 2.8 WAR
SP: CC Sabathia 2.8 WAR
SP: Felix Hernandez 2.6 WAR
SP: Matt Harrison 2.5 WAR
SP: Jason Hammel 2.5 WAR
SP: Jered Weaver 2.3 WAR
RP: Joe Nathan 1.3 WAR
RP: Fernando Rodney 1.3 WAR
RP: Chris Perez 1.0 WAR
RP: Tom Wilhelmsen 1.0 WAR
RP: Scott Atchinson 1.0 WAR

In Total: 3 of the actual starters deserve to start based on WAR. 13 players that aren't All Stars deserve to be All Stars based on WAR.

National League
Starters
C: Carlos Ruiz 4.0 WAR (Buster Posey 2.3)
1B: Joey Votto 4.8 WAR (Votto)
2B: Aaron Hill 2.8 WAR (Dan Uggla 2.4)
3B: David Wright 4.5 WAR (Pablo Sandoval 1.0)
SS: Ian Desmond 2.7 WAR (Rafael Furcal 1.4)
OF: Michael Bourn 4.0 WAR (Melky Cabrera 3.1)
OF: Ryan Braun 3.9 WAR (Carlos Beltran 2.8)
OF: Andrew McCutchen 3.8 WAR (Matt Kemp 2.4)

Reserves
C: Yadier Molina 3.3 WAR
C: AJ Ellis 2.8 WAR
1B: Paul Goldschmidt 2.1 WAR
2B: Dan Uggla 2.4 WAR
SS: Jed Lowrie 2.4 WAR
SS: Starlin Castro 2.0 WAR
3B: Chase Headley 3.4 WAR
OF: Martin Prado 3.6 WAR
OF: Jason Heyward 3.3 WAR
OF: Melky Cabrera 3.1 WAR
OF: Giancarlo Stanton 3.1 WAR
OF: Matt Holliday 3.0 WAR
OF: Carlos Beltran 2.8 WAR

SP: Zack Greinke 3.5 WAR
SP: Stephen Strasburg 3.2 WAR
SP: Gio Gonzalez 2.9 WAR
SP: RA Dickey 2.9 WAR
SP: Matt Cain 2.8 WAR
SP: Johnny Cueto 2.6 WAR
SP: Josh Johnson 2.4 WAR
SP: Clayton Kershaw 2.4 WAR
RP: Aroldis Chapman 1.6 WAR
RP: Craig Kimbrel 1.5 WAR
RP: Matt Belisle 1.3 WAR
RP: Tyler Clippard 1.2 WAR
RP: Rex Brothers 1.0 WAR
In Total: Only 1 of the actual starters deserve to start based on WAR. 16 players that aren't All Stars deserve to be All Stars based on WAR.

In conclusion, fan voting should not be used to decide who is an All Star and who is not. Players such as Zack Greinke and Austin Jackson are having great seasons and deserve to be a part in the All Star Festivities. Greinke has the highest WAR of any pitcher in the National League! Thank you for reading and enjoy your July 4th and Midsummer Classic.