As America’s
national pastime, baseball has influenced the lives of many. As the nation has
grown, baseball has as well. America
has taken its fair share of hits throughout history, but since the Civil War,
baseball has always been there. Baseball has been counted on to supply an
escape to the world's problems. There's something about walking through the
turnstiles, emerging from the concourse, and seeing the beautiful, well-kept
field that gives one hope that better things are to come. As the United
States has matured, baseball has gone
through a revolution. With the efforts of Bill James and other statisticians,
the use of statistics has changed the way the game is looked at and how it is
played. Teams now use statistics to analyze everything in the franchise. Using
statistical analysis in major league baseball is beneficial because it allows
teams to properly and adequately analyze players despite not reaping the
revenue that other teams possess. Teams that use statistical analysis can make
up for the fact that they play in a smaller market and do not possess the
budget and revenue that large market teams are blessed with.
As baseball has emerged as a major business
and competition, the struggle of analyzing players has long been alive. Teams
must find a way to out smart their opponents.
With the formation of the National League in 1875 and the American League
in 1901, came a premium on finding and signing the top available talent. Branch
Rickey changed the approach of scouting with the development of the farm system
in the Cardinals’ organization in the 1930s. Rickey’s farm system helped the
Cardinals reap success in his tenure as President and General Manager. The
Cardinals won three World Series Championships in the decade while using
home-grown players as the rock of the team. Rickey continued developing the
Cardinals up until the early 1940s. In 1942, Rickey’s last season with the
Cardinals, the Redbirds had their best season in franchise history, winning 106
games and the World Series title. The farm system has allowed teams the
opportunity to trust scouts’ instincts by testing the players in the minor
leagues before playing a game in the major leagues. With all the minor
league teams to scout and all the amateur players to research, baseball relies
more on its scouts than any other major sports league.
It
has long been believed in major league baseball that the old-fashioned scouting
system properly sees a player’s potential and tools. Teams assemble a group of
scouts who are assigned a particular region in which they are to find the best
players for that respective team to sign. Andrew Steelman, an economics author
and longtime baseball lover, states in his article
Baseball Science that scouts have long believed that you can judge
a player based solely on looking at him (2). Scouts are always looking for a
potential major leaguer and it is all based on projection. It is very rare for
a scout to see a player who is already major league caliber. The scout has to
see the potential of a player and do his best to forecast the future. Scouts
look through the current strengths and weaknesses of a player and examine
whether the tools are there to allow him to make an impact at the major league
level. This leads to Steelman saying that scouts tend to favor high school
players over college players due to potential rather than track record (2).
With Branch Rickey’s development of the farm system, scouts can take a risk
based on possible potential of a player. While the potential for a high school
player may be higher, college players provide experience and maturity to an
already gifted makeup. In
Moneyball, Michael Lewis, a financial
journalist and proven author, states that
scouts venture out and evaluate players all over the country in order to
find the next star. The scouts do not pay particular attention to statistics,
but rather base decisions on the five tools: hitting for average, hitting for power, speed,
arm strength, and fielding abilities (16). While all of these
abilities are important, the five tool system leaves out a very important part
of the game: baseball IQ. Having knowledge of the game and what should be
happening at any particular time allows a player to fully grasp the situation
and make a solid decision on what is best for the team. Possessing solid
intangibles can allow a player’s career last longer than it would without. The
five-tool system is used only for position players. Each scout has their own
way of analyzing pitchers. However, pitchers are judged primarily on his
pitch repertoire, command and makeup. The makeup factor is often confusing. To
simplify: if two pitchers were to have the same four pitches with the same
plate command, but one of them is five foot nine one hundred sixty pounds and
the other is six foot four two hundred fifty pounds, the scouts would prefer
the latter. The scouts see a body that they can develop into something special.
When a scout sees a player, he gives
the player a numerical grade on his abilities. The grading system used to be on
a scale of one to five but has now been changed to twenty to eighty in most
baseball circles. A grade of twenty shows poor ability in that skill while a
grade of eighty shows exemplary ability. A rating of fifty is considered
major league average. For a player to be considered a quality major league
prospect, their skill set should possess at least two above average tools. In
What
is Sabermetrics? the author Bradley Woodrum, a sports
writer for FanGraphs, reports that the scouting system analyzes not only the
physical attributes of a player, but also the mental attributes. Teams can
avoid major problems well in advance of the time they occur if they can
recognize destructive patterns in a player’s lifestyle (2). The scouting system
is beneficial in some circumstances. However, the human element of scouting
provides a flaw in the system while statistics do not lie.
It has long been believed that the old fashioned
way of scouting provides effective analysis of a player and what they might
become.
Statistical
analysis in baseball has evolved into what it is today. It began with a
revolution and has thus been turned into a formula for many teams’ success,
including the Oakland Athletics. Statistics play an important role in
evaluating performance and players in the game. Since baseball became a
professional sport, statistics have been kept in detail for fans, players, and
team personnel. The practice of keeping records of
statistics started in the 19th century by Henry Chadwick, who is often referred
to as the “father of baseball.” Chadwick is credited with creating the box
score which is published daily in newspapers across the world. The box score
shows a player’s statistics in the game in a format that can be easily
understood for readers. The basic format of the box score has changed little
since the original ones designed by Chadwick. Chadwick is also credited with
devising the statistics batting average and earned run average. In 1947, Branch
Rickey, general manager of the Brooklyn Dodgers at that time, hired Allan Roth
who became baseball’s first full time statistician. Roth introduced many
theories that are used in the present day including the idea that on-base percentage was more important than batting
average and that platooning players was effective if used properly. For his
efforts in the field of baseball statistics, Roth was inducted into the
Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame. In 1977, a Kansas prison guard named Bill James
self-published an annual book titled The Bill James Baseball Abstract.
In the book, James coined the term “sabermetrics” meaning the
application of statistical analysis to baseball records, especially in order to
evaluate and compare the performance of individual players (Lewis 20). Bill
James’ interpretation of baseball statistics contradicted that of the baseball
traditionalists.
James introduced a new approach to
evaluating players and strategies, and his theories have become indispensable
tools for agents, statistics analysts, front office workers, and any true
baseball lover. James is currently
the Senior Advisor of Baseball Operations for the Boston Red Sox, one of
the leading teams when it comes to the use of statistical analysis. In the
article How Sabermetrics Works, Jacob Silverman, an established writer
for HowStuffWorks, states that sabermetricians have questioned basic
assumptions on how talent and player contributions are judged and have created
a revolution against the baseball norm (1). As statistics have emerged in
baseball, the application of statistics to player development and scouting has
been rapidly increasing as more teams are partaking in this belief. With the
help of Chadwick, Roth, and James among others, statistics have advanced
through the course of time and now are as common as “three strikes and you’re
out.”
With
baseball statistics being such a key component in the baseball world, people
are taking advantage. The ability to understand sabermetrics has been a skill
sought after by many, but perfected by few. According to David Grabiner, a
professor and author of The Sabermetric Manifesto, the basic goal
of sabermetrics is to evaluate a situation or player for a given purpose.
The most common use of statistics is to evaluate past performance and
to predict future performance (2). People want to understand a player’s
value and what they bring to a franchise. Seeing this craving for numbers, countless websites have been created in an
effort to allow fans to further reach the game of baseball. Websites such as
Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, offer advanced statistics to the casual fan.
Baseball-Reference is commonly used by major league teams as a statistical
database as there are no limits to what the website can do. FanGraphs is a
website more accessible for fans but is still used in select major league
circles for its capability to customize spreadsheets and graphs. Literature has
also become a key component in the way teams analyze statistics. Each year,
numerous books are published predicting statistical outputs for the upcoming
season and other statistical measures. Select Major League Baseball front
offices are eager to get their hands on these statistical encyclopedias. Two of
the more well-known annual publications are the Baseball Prospectus Annual
and the Bill James Handbook. The Baseball Prospectus Annual mainly
focuses on the minor leagues and player development. It analyzes team’s farm
system and how it will turn out in years to come. The Bill James Handbook is
said to be owned by every general manager in baseball. Each year, Bill James
and his team at ACTA Sports publishes “The Handbook” to provide statistics for
the past season and projections for the upcoming season. “The Handbook” offers
a player register in which every current major league baseball player’s career
statistics are published for all to see. It also offers Bill James’ own
statistical projections for each player in the upcoming season. These projected
statistics play a major influence in what transactions a team will make in the
offseason and how much a player is of value to a team. As the statistical
revolution is changing baseball, the internet and literature have helped teams
analyze and project player performance.
Using statistical analysis in all aspects of
the game of baseball allows a front office to properly get the most “bang for
their buck” as some teams are not blessed with the revenue and budget that
other teams are. Unlike scouting, statistics do not discriminate. You are what
your numbers say you are. Small market teams versus large market teams. The
baseball equivalent to David versus Goliath. In this case however, David holds
statistical analysis rather than a sling and a stone and Goliath can only fret
at the way David uses his weapon. “The pleasure of rooting for Goliath is that
you can expect to win. The pleasure of rooting for David is that, while you
don’t know what to expect, you stand at least a chance of being inspired”
(Lewis 187). Major League Baseball has many small market teams including the
Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, and Minnesota Twins. In his article Playing
the Numbers Game, Steve Gierschier, a SABR (Society of American Baseball Research) member and Sporting News staff writer, says that many
of Bill James’ philosophies are being embraced by baseball front offices. Billy
Beane, the general manager of the Oakland A’s, is among the most notable at
using James’ theories and philosophies as guidance for how he has conducted his
day-to-day operations and has been successful (3). Andrew Steelman states that
the Oakland A’s front office is
analyzed in depth in Michael Lewis’ 2003 book, Moneyball. Moneyball
follows the A’s through the 2002 season in which the team won the American
League Western Division despite having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball
(2). The steps in which Beane takes to develop a winning team are extensive and
detailed. With a tight budget, Beane must always think ten steps ahead or else
he will fall five steps behind. Tom MacLennan, a contributor to The Journal
of Popular Culture, analyzes Moneyball’s philosophies and what it brings to
the table in his article, Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game.
“Moneyball by Michael Lewis explores a significant paradigm shift in baseball:
namely, why some baseball executives seem to be much better than others are at
getting more wins out of fewer dollars. Although the game on the field is
ruthlessly competitive, there is much incompetence among the executives and
scouts” (MacLennan 1). Billy Beane is one of the few executives in baseball,
along with Andrew Friedman of the Tampa Bay Rays, to use statistics to their
advantage and to develop a system with a long term goal rather than a short
term solution. Michael Lewis explains that people in their respective fields
operate with beliefs and biases. To the extent you can eliminate both and
replace them with data, you gain a clear advantage (98). Beane and Friedman
have used the data that is there in front of them to their advantage in
building highly respected, winning franchises. Jacob Silverman points out how
baseball is able to use numbers by stating that sabermetrics are made possible
because baseball is a sport in which every pitch, every play, every inning is
recorded and analyzed (1). Unlike most sports, baseball is capable of being fully
recorded and every play can be archived. In the article M.V.P. Debate Goes
Beyond the Box Score by Nate Silver, an established sabermetrician and
writer, Silver states that statistics enable the ability to measure different
elements of the game- defense, situational hitting, base running- which were once weak points of
statistical analysis (1). Being able to now analyze every component of the
game, general managers who use statistical analysis are a step ahead of those
who don’t. However, a small market general manager must have a plan. They must
live and die by the plan. Money will not just become available. It’s getting
the most of what you have that’s key. According to MacLennan, Billy Beane takes
structure to a whole new level. Billy Beane’s approach to the A’s is to make
the system, rather than the player, the star. Beane wants to be idolized for
his creativity with statistics and his approach to running a team (2). This
philosophy allows teams to not over-commit and overvalue a single player, but rather
have a strategy on how to make the team successful year in and year out. With a
budget of roughly $40 million, Beane’s goal is to win games as cheaply as
possible. To do this effectively, he acquires players with the qualities that
fit his system that the market undervalues and sells the players whom the
market overvalues (MacLennan 2). No general manager in baseball better
understands what Sabermetrics can do more than Billy Beane. A statistic is only
useful if it is properly understood. Therefore, a large part of
sabermetrics involves the understanding of how to use statistics properly
and which statistics are useful for what purposes (Grabiner 1). Billy
Beane understands how to properly use Sabermetrics and advanced statistics and
this leads to the Athletics maintaining a competitive team. Opposing teams
often see Beane and others as lucky and say their results are flukes. According
to Andrew Steelman, “Other general managers may look at the A's and simply
think that their recent success has been a fluke. In their minds, the
traditional way of running a baseball team - from judging talent to managing a
budget - has worked for generations (even if it really hasn't) and with time
will be proven superior to Beane's unorthodox methods” (4). The bridge between
large market baseball teams and small market teams was once a hard one to cross
but through statistical strategies and budgeting, teams are able to shorten the
gap and make for a more competitive game.
The trademark symbol of the statistical
revolution has been the use of the on-base percentage statistic. Ask a casual
fan about Moneyball and their first response will be “On-Base percentage is
superior to batting average.” Billy Beane’s use of the stat has changed the way
baseball is played and scouted. On-Base percentage is a measure of how often a batter reaches base for
any reason. The aforementioned Allan Roth was the first statistician to
state that on-base percentage is a more valuable statistic than batting
average. Bill James brought the philosophy to life in his Baseball Abstracts.
Both Billy Beane and Paul DePodesta (Billy
Beane’s Assistant General Manager) analyzed the works of Bill James and the way
he looked at the game of baseball. Beane and DePodesta used on-base percentage
to search for players who could fit the Athletic mold (Steelman 3). Having this
set philosophy that players who get on-base the most score more runs which
results in more wins has allowed the Athletics to be successful despite playing
in a small market. Players such as Scott Hatteberg are often overlooked in the
baseball circuit but the Athletics see Hatteberg as a player who will benefit
them as his on-base percentage ranked in the top ten percent of all players.
With on-base percentage being the most proficient stat that Billy Beane uses,
Beane had to put it into focus in the Athletics system. Tom MacLennan discloses
how Beane was able to accomplish the same belief throughout the organization by
saying “To do this, Beane replaced traditional scouts with statistical number crunchers”
(1). This has allowed to uniformity throughout the organization as all
employees share the same beliefs and philosophies when it comes to baseball.
According to Nate Silver, statistics have validated the conventional wisdom
that getting the leadoff hitter on base increases s team’s chance of scoring
greatly (3). When the leadoff hitter reaches base, the team’s chance of scoring
a run in that particular inning goes up fifty percent. Therefore it is
effective to stress to the players the importance of getting on base. However,
general managers can only do so much in emphasizing on-base percentage.
According to Tom MacLennan, one great step Beane took to make sure his use of
statistical analysis showed on the field was to hire a field manager that implemented
his policies and beliefs, including the importance of on-base percentage (2).
The importance of unison throughout an organization cannot be stressed enough.
Battles between the manager, players, and front office can crush a franchise.
Hiring a manager who shares the same beliefs is very important when it comes to
the success of the team. As Moneyball
has emerged as an established theory, the statistic on-base percentage and its
direct influence on the winning of baseball games has led to key changes in how
the game is looked at.
Using statistical analysis in major league
baseball is beneficial because it allows teams to analyze players properly
despite not bearing the revenue and economic stability that other teams
possess. The development of statistics has allowed teams like the Oakland
A’s to level the playing field and compete at the highest level. With the
efforts of Bill James, Allan Roth, and Henry Chadwick, baseball has emerged as
a game for thinkers and philosophers as well as a game for athletes. These men,
not blessed with baseball talent, have forever changed the way the game will be
played. Statistics in baseball are as important as home plate and the pitcher’s
mound. This revolution will not look back, but only continue.
Works
Cited
Gietschier, Steve.
"Playing the numbers game." Sporting News. 26
Aug. 2005: 22.
eLibrary. Web. 27
Nov. 2012.
Grabiner, David. "The
Sabermetric Manifesto." N.p., n. d. Web. Web. 15 Dec. 2012.
Lewis, Michael. Moneyball. New York: W.W. Norton &
Company, 2003. Print.
MacLennan, Tom.
"Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game." Journal of Popular Culture 4(2005):780. eLibrary. Web. 27 Nov. 2012.
Silver, Nate. "M.V.P.
Debate Goes Beyond The Numbers in a Box Score." New York Times. 15 Nov.
2012: B13. eLibrary. Web. 18 Dec. 2012.
Silverman, Jacob. "How
Sabermetrics Works." N.p., n. d. Web. Web. 15 Dec. 2012.
Steelman, Aaron.
"Baseball Science." Region Focus. 01 Jul. 2004: 32. eLibrary. Web. 29
Nov. 2012.
Woodrum, Bradley.
"What Is Sabermetrics? And Which Teams Use It?." N.p., 12 2012. Web. Web. 15 Dec. 2012.